Tag Archives: AccuWeather Inc.

Natural Gas Futures Decline in New York on Abundant Supplies for Winter

By Christine Buurma – Nov 29, 2010 7:42 AM PT

(Source: Bloomberg) Natural gas futures declined in New York on speculation that above-normal supplies will limit price gains during the winter heating season.

Gas inventory levels in the week ended Nov. 19 were 9.5 percent above the five-year average, wider than a 9.3 percent surplus the previous week, the Energy Department said on Nov. 24. Colder-than-normal weather may blanket most of the eastern and central U.S. from Dec. 4 through Dec. 8, according to Commodity Weather Group in Bethesda, Maryland.

“The market knows we can handle just about anything Mother Nature can throw at us this winter,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst with PFGBest in Chicago. “We haven’t seen a price level that has caused natural gas production to fall off dramatically.”

Natural gas for January delivery dropped 3 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $4.369 per million British thermal units at 10:23 a.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange after reaching $4.487, the highest intraday price since Aug. 9. Gas futures are down 22 percent this year.

Temperatures may be below-normal in the Southeast from Dec. 9 through Dec. 13 and normal in the Northeast and most of the Midwest during that period, Commodity Weather Group said.

The high temperature in New York on Dec. 6 may be 44 degrees Fahrenheit (7 Celsius), 2 degrees below normal, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania. The high in Chicago may be 41, 2 degrees above normal.

About 52 percent of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department.

U.S. gas stockpiles fell 6 billion cubic feet in the week ended Nov. 19 to 3.837 trillion cubic feet, last week’s Energy Department report showed.

Natural Gas Declines in New York on Forecasts of Above-Normal Temperatures

Natural gas futures fell in New York on forecasts for above-normal temperatures that may reduce demand for the heating fuel.

According to Bloomberg report:

Warmer-than-normal weather is likely in New England and parts of New York from Nov. 29 through Dec. 8, according to MDA Federal Inc.’s EarthSat Energy Weather in Rockville, Maryland. Temperatures may be normal in the Great Lakes region, Southeast and parts of the central U.S. during that period, MDA said.

Unfortunately, this is one of the problems with natural gas. Its’ seasonal. Demand peaks and valleys are often driven by weather conditions, primarily in the energy hungry northeastern US. Another problem here is that the weatherman is not always right and though predictions of “above-normal” temperatures can place downward pressures on natural gas prices, a cold snap can come into play – and usually does.

Rather then making price predictions for natural gas, the more important consideration is where US inventory levels will be at the end of the winter heating season. HRN pointed this out last year when 2009 winter season got off to a late start and US natural gas inventories reached a new high. Well that record high was broke this year, and we are now looking at a potentially warmer then normal winter – at least for the first few weeks. (Read HRN: US natural gas in storage hit record high on only 3 Bcf – prices down)

Some interesting factors in the Bloomberg article worth noting:

The high temperature in New York on Nov. 30 may be 56 degrees Fahrenheit (13 Celsius), 8 degrees above normal, according to AccuWeather Inc. in State College, Pennsylvania.

U.S. heating demand may be 7 percent below normal levels from Nov. 30 through Dec. 4, according to David Salmon, a meteorologist with Weather Derivatives in Belton, Missouri.

About 52 percent of U.S. households use natural gas for heating, according to the Energy Department.

A department report scheduled for release at noon in Washington may show a withdrawal from U.S. natural gas inventories of 1 billion cubic feet for the week ended Nov. 19, according to the median of 24 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. The five-year average change for the week is a drop of 13 billion cubic feet, department data show.

Bloomberg: Natural Gas Declines in New York Forecasts of Above-Normal Temperatures